Statistical Thinking About Home Run Hitting

Jim Albert

Emeritus Distinguished University Professor

Department of Mathematics and Statistics

Bowling Green State University

Abstract

Baseball is remarkable with respect to the amount of data collected over the seasons of Major League Baseball (MLB) beginning in 1871.  These data have provided an opportunity to address many questions of interest among baseball fans and researchers.  This talk will review several statistical studies on baseball home run hitting by the speaker over the last 30 years.  By modeling career trajectories, one learns about the greatest peak abilities of home run hitters.  We know that players exhibit streaky home run performances, but is there evidence that hitters exhibit streaky ability? MLB has been concerned about the abrupt rise in home run hitting in recent seasons.  What are the possible causes of the home run explosion, and in particular, is the explosion due to the composition of the baseball?